MorenoDV_2026-11-10

Is Bitcoin’s Risk-Reward Improving as the Rebound Weakens?

Bitcoin’s pullback has erased the profit cushion of short-term holders. Around their $75,700 cost basis, the balance of risk and reward now depends on whether buyers can absorb supply from holders looking to get out near breakeven. By the November 9 close, short-term holder MVRV had fallen from 1.17 in early October to 0.994. BTC fell 13% while the cohort’s estimated cost basis rose 2.4%. Adjusted STH NUPL also slipped below zero, with shallower paper losses than in February or June. The short-term Sharpe ratio edged into negative territory, reflecting weaker returns relative to recent volatility. Meanwhile, STH-SOPR at 0.997 shows that recent coins that actually moved on November 9 did so at a slight loss in aggregate. The cohort is under pressure, with room for that stress to deepen. If rallies keep stalling near the cohort’s cost basis and net unrealized losses deepen, the August rebound starts to look like a pause in the broader downtrend. A sustained break below $73,000 followed by a failed retest from below would strengthen the case for bear-market continuation. The recent reversal above $80,000 and the shift toward more aggressive selling than buying in the spot market show why that scenario remains plausible.